The doom and gloom surrounding a three-game losing streak over the course of a month (factoring in the FIBA World Cup break, of course) is pervasive, but it speaks to two things:
- One: Minnesota Lynx fans are, relatively speaking, pretty spoiled.
- Two: Minnesota Lynx fans, as a consequence of being Minnesota sports fans, are always quick to prime themselves for disappointment.
It’s not unreasonable to have concerns, but it’s not unreasonable to hold on to some optimism, either. If the current scramble for playoff standings is any indication, the WNBA is far from easily predictable — it’s still a small enough league to be stacked top-to-bottom with skill, and there’s always the luck factor to go with it.
So, what does a realistic snapshot of the playoffs look like, anyway?
Potential Paths
Even with only two days left in the regular season, the final standings are uncertain, making the rush to the ring even less so. I’ve picked two likely candidates for each round knowing that the whole thing could end up demolished in three days’ time.
(I would vote on the Washington Mystics bringing the wrecking ball.)
First Round (3-Game Series)
Dallas Wings
Pros: The Lynx swept the regular season series, so it’s hard to argue that they don’t have the Wings’ number. Not to mention the Wings are without their best perimeter defender in Azzi Fudd.
Cons: No one knows what Playoff Paige Bueckers will look like. In such a short series, enough of a Paige takeover can be a threat.
New York Liberty
Pros: The Liberty, for all their late-season success, continues to battle a plague of inconsistency. I wouldn’t count out the value of the bitter taste of a recent loss to a rival as a motivating factor on the Lynx side, either.
Cons: The Liberty have a few advantages on the Lynx — size, experience at the point, and Breanna Stewart. When they use those advantages, the Lynx have to be at their best, no question.
Second Round (5-Game Series)
Indiana Fever
Pros: The red-hot Fever offense needs a break sometimes… and they take those breaks on defense even if they shouldn’t. The Lynx are no snooze on the offensive end either, so that’s a point of advantage every time.
Cons: The Lynx need some defense to hold the Fever down just enough to stay ahead, and that area has dipped some recently. It’s also been proven that almost no one can keep Kelsey Mitchell from scoring 20+, so it’s imperative to lock down Caitlin Clark and Co.
Atlanta Dream
Pros: Efficiency has been the Dream’s intermittent struggle all season, and with enough defensive pressure, they could be forced back into that state. Defending Indiana’s onslaught in round one could also leave them fatigued.
Cons: The Dream are one of the most effective defense-minded teams on the board — and speaking of boards, the battle for them is always a challenge with Angel Reese on the floor. Watch out for steals, blocks, and the oft-underrated Jordin Canada.
Finals (7-Game Series)
Golden State Valkyries
Pros: The cost of the Valkyries’ identity is offensive output; their games are some of the lowest-scoring of the season on both sides of the ball. They have only defeated the Lynx once in their entire existence — can that defense result in being on the winning side of seven?
Cons: If any team can prove the adage that defense wins championships beyond doubt, it’ll be the Valkyries. The attack is balanced enough for the whole roster to stay fresh despite the effort. It won’t be easy to break through a team looking to make a strong statement for its own identity.
Las Vegas Aces
Pros: It’s nothing new, but the Aces have trouble with their depth. No longer having NaLyssa Smith as a solid presence in the post means that depth is further challenged, and it is possible — if difficult — to grind the Aces down over seven.
Cons: A’ja Wilson is the likely soon-to-be five-time MVP, and the backcourt duo of Gray and Young are on an upswing post-World Cup gold. Their strength is their experience and determination, and the challenge is to want it more.
At the time of writing, the Lynx are about to take on the Indiana Fever in a regular season two-game series, where some questions may be answered and new ones may come about. The only thing certain: the Lynx aren’t out of this by a long shot yet.
